Macroeconomic Indicators (AQA A Level Economics)

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Lorraine Clancy

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Introduction to Macroeconomic Indicators

  • Each of the macroeconomic objectives has at least one metric that is used to measure progress towards that objective
    • These metrics are called macroeconomic indicators
    • Macroeconomic indicators provide a snapshot of the economic performance
       
  • The data from the macroeconomic indicators helps policymakers, economists, investors and businesses make informed decisions

Diagram: Measures of Macroeconomic Indicators 

screenshot-2024-02-02-at-15-12-08

Indicators used to measure and track macroeconomic objectives include the Claimant Count and the Consumer Price index

  • Policymakers use the data from economic growth, inflation, unemployment, and the balance of payments to assist in formulating and evaluating progress towards their objectives
  • The indicators provide a means of making historical and international comparisons

Measures of Economic Growth

  • Economic growth is one of the main macroeconomic goals that the government aims to achieve
    • A steady increase in national output can help achieve other goals, such as lower levels of unemployment
       
  •  Three common indicators used to measure economic growth are
    • Nominal GDP
      The value of all goods and services produced in an economy in a one-year period
    • Real GDP
      This is nominal GDP that is adjusted for inflation. E.g. I
      f nominal GDP is £100bn and inflation is 10%, then real GDP is £90bn
       
    • Real GDP per Capita
      The real GDP is divided by the total population of a country so as to give an average $ amount of real GDP/person. E.g. Switzerland ($93,657) has a much higher GDP/capita than Burundi ($238)

Worked example

Using the information from the table below, calculate the GDP per capita for Costa Rica to nearest dollar bracket [2]

GDP Data for Costa Rica, UK & USA 2015/2016

 
Costa Rica


UK


USA

GDP (PPP $bn)

69.6

2 518.1

16 890.2

Population millions

4.9

64.7

321.8



Step 1: Insert values into the formula and solve

  
Real space GDP space per space capita space equals space fraction numerator Real space GDP over denominator Population end fraction

equals space fraction numerator $ 69.6 space biilion over denominator 4.9 space million end fraction

equals space $ 14 comma 204.08

  [2]

Exam Tip

When giving the answer, always include the currency (dollar sign $), round to the nearest dollar and give full numerical value (billion/bn).

Worked example

The table contains data for the rates of growth of nominal and real GDP and the rate of inflation for an economy in a given year. Which one of the following combinations, A, B, C or D, shows the correct relationship between the three variables?

Answer Nominal GDP Growth Real GDP Growth Inflation

A

-3%

0%

+3%

B

+5%

+3%

-2%

C

-4%

-2%

-2%

D

+4%

+4%

+1%

 

Step 1: Substitute the values for each answer into the following formula

   Inflation space equals space Nominal space GDP space minus space real space GDP
Inflation space straight A space should space be space minus 3 percent sign space so space the space answer space is space incorrect space open parentheses negative 3 percent sign minus 0 close parentheses
Inflation space straight B space should space be space plus 2 percent sign space so space the space answer space is space incorrect space stretchy left parenthesis 5 percent sign minus 3 percent sign stretchy right parenthesis
Inflation space straight C space should space be space minus 2 percent sign space so space the space answer space is space correct space stretchy left parenthesis negative 4 percent sign minus space open parentheses negative 2 percent sign close parentheses stretchy right parenthesis   

 

Step 2: Identify the correct answer on the answer sheet

   C.   [1]

Measures of Inflation

  • Inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level of an economy

  • The UK uses two inflation indices to measure inflation and each one is calculated differently
    • The consumer price index (CPI)
    • The retail price index (RPI)
       

 A Comparison of the CPI & RPI


Consumer Price index


Retail Price Index

  • The CPI is an index that measures the change in the price of a fixed basket of consumer goods bought by a typical household
    • A 'household basket' of 700 goods and services that an average family would purchase is compiled on an annual basis
    •  A household expenditure survey is conducted to determine what goes into the basket
    • Each year, some goods and services exit the basket and new ones are added
    • The explanation of how a consumer price index is composed can be found on the page 'Using Index Numbers'
       
  • The formula used to calculate the CPI is

begin mathsize 16px style CPI space equals fraction numerator Cost space of space basket space in space year space straight X over denominator Cost space of space basket space in space base space year end fraction space straight x space 100 end style

  • The percentage difference in CPI between the two years is the inflation rate for the period

  • The Retail Price Index (RPI) is calculated in exactly the same way as the CPI
  • However, certain goods and services that are excluded from the CPI are included with the RPI
    • These include council tax, mortgage interest payments, house depreciation, and other house purchasing costs such as estate agents fees

  • Due to the extra inclusions, inflation measured using the RPI is usually higher than the CPI
    • This is mainly due to its sensitivity to interest rate changes, which affect mortgage interest
    • It is argued that the RPI is a more accurate indication of household inflation

Measures of Unemployment

  • A worker is considered unemployed if they are out of a job and actively looking for one
    • Unemployed people who are not actively looking for a job would not be considered to be unemployed
       
  • Unemployment is measured in many countries using two different approaches
    • The International Labour Organisation (ILO) Survey
    • The Claimant Count
       

The Differences Between the ILO Labour Force Survey & the Claimant Count


The ILO Labour Force Survey


The Claimant Count 

  • An extensive survey is sent to a random sample of households every quarter (60,000 households in the UK)
  • Respondents self-determine if they are unemployed based on the following ILO criteria
    • Ready to work within the next two weeks
    • Have actively looked for work in the past month
  • The same survey is used globally so it's useful for making international comparisons

  • Counts the number of people claiming job seekers allowance or unemployment benefits
  • There is a more stringent requirement to be considered unemployed than with the ILO survey
  • It often requires claimants to meet regularly with a 'work coach'

Three indicators used to Analyse the Labour Market in an Economy


Unemployment Rate


Employment Rate


Labour Force Participation Rate

equals fraction numerator no. space actively space seeking over denominator total space labour space force end fraction cross times 100

equals fraction numerator no. space in space employment over denominator population space of space working space age end fraction cross times 100

equals fraction numerator labour space force over denominator total space population end fraction cross times 100

  • The employment rate could be increasing even as the unemployment rate is increasing
    • This may be caused by increased immigration, which causes the working age population to increase
    • This may be caused as people move from being economically inactive to employed

  • Unemployment rates do not capture the hidden unemployment that occurs in the long term
    • Workers look for a job but may eventually give up and become economically inactive
    • This actually improves the unemployment rate, as fewer people are actively seeking work

A Satisfactory Balance of Payments

  • The Balance of Payment (BOP) measures the flow of money in and out of a country in a specified time period (usually a month, quarter, or year)
     
  • The most important component of the BOP is the current account
    • It represents the flow of trade (exports - imports) in goods and services
    • It also includes net income payments (the difference between income flowing in and out of a country)
       

Components of the UK Current Account For 2017


Component


2017

Net trade in goods (exports - imports)

£-32.9bn

Net trade in services (exports - imports)

£27.9bn

Sub-total trade in goods and services

£-5bn

Net income (interest, profits & dividends)

£-2.1bn

Current transfers

£-3.6bn

Total Current Account Balance

£-10.7bn

Current Account as a % of GDP

3.7%

Explaining the account

  • Goods are also referred to as visible exports or imports
  • Services are also referred to as invisible exports or imports
  • Net income consists of income transfers by citizens and corporations
    • Credits are received from UK citizens who are abroad and send remittances home
    • Debits are sent by foreigners working in the UK back to their countries

  • Current transfers are typically payments at government level between countries, e.g. contributions to the World Bank
  • The Current Account balance is often expressed as a % of GDP
    • This allows for easy international comparisons

The Current Account balance

  • A trade deficit is when a country's imports exceed its exports during a given time period. 
  • A trade surplus is when a country's exports exceed its imports during a given time period. Balance of trade = exports - imports.
  • The UK government has a macroeconomic aim to get their Current Account balance as close to equilibrium as possible
    • The UK usually has a current account deficit in its balance of payments

  • Export-led economic growth would help it become positive
  • However, with increasing income and wealth in an economy, the value of imports rises
    • Consumers enjoy the variety of goods and services abroad
    • Rising imports push the balance towards a deficit

Exam Tip

Students sometimes confuse a UK Government Budget deficit with a Current Account deficit. Ensure that your understanding of the distinction between these two concepts is clear.

The Budget deficit occurs when: UK Government spending > UK Government revenue (tax receipts).

The Current Account deficit refers to the BOP.

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Lorraine Clancy

Author: Lorraine Clancy

Lorraine brings over 12 years of dedicated teaching experience to the realm of Leaving Cert and IBDP Economics. Having served as the Head of Department in both Dublin and Milan, Lorraine has demonstrated exceptional leadership skills and a commitment to academic excellence. Lorraine has extended her expertise to private tuition, positively impacting students across Ireland. Lorraine stands out for her innovative teaching methods, often incorporating graphic organisers and technology to create dynamic and engaging classroom environments.